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Press Release

The Irishjobs.ie Jobs Index
1^st Quarter 2013

Total jobs are down 4% year on year, down 21% quarterly. Q2:2009 = 100.
What is contributing to this slump? Residual uncertainty from the budget, coupled with a sharp drop in domestic demand.

Headlines.

• Total jobs are down 4% from the same period last year, while the quarterly change in total jobs advertised is down 21%.
• Q1 figures demonstrate an overall strengthening of the labour market in relation to key sectors and regions compared with the Jobs Index 2009 baseline.
• Dublin saw an increase in jobs advertised from the same period last year of 4%, while Limerick jobs rose 1% and Cork jobs fell 4%. Galway jobs fell 28% and Waterford jobs fell 27%
• Year on year, Manufacturing (+17%), Sales (+2%), and Tourism (+16%) have experienced positive gains relative to the same period last year. Our index closely matches findings from the NCB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, which fell to 48.6 in March from 51.5 in February, below the 50 line dividing growth from contraction for the first time since February last year.

 

 

Is uncertainty driving stagnation?

Total jobs are down 4% year on year, down 21% quarterly. Q2:2009 = 100. What is contributing to this slump? Residual uncertainty from the budget, coupled with a sharp drop in domestic demand.

The IrishJobs.ie index measures employer expectations by monitoring the number of new, corporate jobs advertised during a quarter. As such it is a strong leading indicator and correlates well with other measures of employment and output performance like the purchasing managers’ indices for services and manufacturing. Manufacturing activity in Ireland, for
example, has now expanded for 12 successive months, far longer than other European countries, and is up 17% from the same quarter last year.

The headlines this quarter are a reflection of the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding the Irish economy, but, when we dig a little into the data, do reflect an overall strengthening of the labour market within the Irish economy as things get back on track following a disastrous few years for workers and employers.

In this report, we’ll look at job availability by county, by industry, and look specifically at manufacturing and tourism. The Dublin Airport Authority reported large increases in the number of passengers passing through compared to previous years as the number of tourists visiting Ireland rose 4.4 per cent from November to January.

 

Counties growing

Year on year many counties are experiencing growth in all types of jobs. Carlow, for example, has experienced a 16% increase in jobs advertised, while Dublin’s annual growth has been around 4%.

Kilkenny has seen increases of nearly 29%,while Waterford, saw drops of 28%. Other counties like Kerry saw increases of 22%, while Midland counties like Laois and Offaly experienced drops of 19% and 5% respectively. Table 1 to the right shows the detailed breakdown.

By region, Dublin and the southwest account for almost all of the Irish economy’s recent expansion in employment, while both regions also recorded the State’s lowest unemployment rates as of the final quarter of 2012.

The recent study on regional employment by Edgar Morgenroth of the ESRI shows a marked change in unemployment when we consider the regional dimension.

While many of the regions we study in the IrishJobs report had jobless rates of below 12 per cent, the labour market in the southeast remains the worst affected, with unemployment there at 19.4 per cent. South-East, followed by the Border, 17.7%, and Midlands, 17.4%, regions.

 

Table 1. County level increases and decreases in job availability comparing Q1, 2013 to Q1, 2012, and Q4 2012 to Q1 2013.

 

What jobs are there in Dublin?

In the chart to the right shows, as a percentage of the total jobs available in Dublin in this quarter, what sectors are hiring. In March, 14.1 per cent of the workforce was formally jobless, so looking carefully at the most populous area of the country really matters.

The IT sector jumps right out, with 16% of jobs available. Next with have Sales, with 13% of jobs available, Banking with 10%, and Hotel and Catering with 7% of the total.

These findings square with other reports showing that retail, information technology, scientific activities, finance and real estate all recorded at least two consecutive quarters of employment growth in Ireland.

Now let’s look closely at how some of the best performing sectors are doing.

Job availability in Dublin, Q1, 2013. Clearly IT, Sales, and Finance are the strongest areas of labour demand.

 

Sales

The Sales sector has seen robust growth even during the downturn. And yet no major third level courses exist to up skill students in this area. Overall jobs in Sales are up 2% from the same period last year, with a very strong increase across the period the IrishJobs.ie Jobs Index measures-the second quarter of 2009 to today, up by 53% during this period.

Manufacturing

The real high flyer in Irish industry at the moment is manufacturing, up 17% from the same quarter last year. Figure 4 shows its stellar performance relative to other sectors over the medium term.

Irish manufacturing has consistently outperformed the euro zone average over the past 12 months. The survey reached a 15-month high of 53.9 in July last year. As mentioned above, Manufacturing’s increase over the period in the IrishJobs.ie Report is well in line with the NCB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which has unfortunately fallen somewhat in the latest data, to 48.6 in March from 51.5 in February 2013.

Hotel & Catering

This sector experienced a large shock during the first stage of Ireland’s economic crisis, shedding large numbers of workers as the global economic downturn forced both domestic demand and international demand for all tourism services downward.

Combined with a decrease in competitiveness and a significant oversupply, hotel and catering businesses have struggled to survive since 2007. Now things seem to be brightening, with a 16% increase from the same period last year. Like IT, Hotel and Catering is once again a growing sector for employment in Ireland.

Job availability for IT, Manufacturing, Sales, and Hotel/Catering. Q2 2009 = 100. Manufacturing’s increases are clearly seen.

Industry Breakdown

Table below shows which industries are forging ahead, and which ones falling behind.

Essentially we see a large increase for almost all sectors over the period from the index quarter, Q2 2009, apart from Construction, -141%, Education -16%, and Retailing and Wholesaling -28%. The decline of publishing and media type jobs is clearly evident over this period as well with a drop of -9%.

From 2009 large gains have been made in industries like Manufacturing, up 289%, IT, up 115%, and Engineering, up 76%. Annually the changes are mixed, with Accountancy and Finance down 25%, Legal down 51% and General Management down 18%.

Annually the largest winners are for industries like Banking and Financial Services, +20%, Hotel and Catering +16%, Manufacturing +17%, and Transport +17%..

Quarterly however almost all sectors experienced a decline in job availability, with notable exceptions being Engineering +5%, Tourism and Travel +7%, and Hotel and Catering, +5%.

Overall the picture by industry shows that the pace of increases in services like Hotel and Catering and in manufacturing businesses are increasing, while others lag behind.

 

Conclusion

Total jobs advertised are down year on year, but just barely. They point to an economy still experiencing great difficulties in transitioning from a construction based bubble economy to a more sustainable economy based on sound fundamentals. We will look next quarter to see for signs of a gradual recovery in jobs in sectors like Sales and Hotel & Catering.

A note on the data

The report looks at all corporate jobs advertised on IrishJobs.ie and Jobs.ie from 1/01/2013 -31/03/2013.

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